The APRC interim leader, Hon. Fabakary Tombong Jatta, on Friday 2nd September, 2021 announced that an alliance has been agreed by the APRC and the NPP for the forthcoming presidential election.
The question now arises: What is the consequence of the formation of this alliance? Does it mean that victory is inevitable for this alliance?
It is simplistic to conclude to draw such conclusion because the NPP has been leading in recent polls and the APRC polled 40 percent of the votes in the 2016 presidential election.
First of all, it is important to note that this is not a matter of simple arithmetic. Two political parties may form an alliance and the outcome may be a reduction in votes. For example, in the 2001 election, the UDP candidate and NRP candidate stood separately and they polled 149,448 and 35,671 votes respectively. But in 2006 the UDP led alliance which included UDP and NRP polled only 104,808. In short, the combination of the two parties into an alliance did not lead to an increase in the number of votes. The votes decreased drastically.
In other words, key factors will play an important role in determining the outcome of the success of the alliance. First, one has to ask the question whether the APRC membership will support the NPP en masse? The fact that the APRC interim leader makes reference to members considering other political parties as options is an indication that this is not a settled matter.
Secondly, and more importantly, will the NPP candidate not lose some of his support by allying with a party that some consider has no place in Gambian politics today?
Time will tell whether this alliance will succeed. What is of significance is that everything depends on condition, time and place.
Needless to say, Foroyaa will continue to monitor developments.