Pollsters Fail to Predict Winners in Mayoral & Chairperson Elections


By Ndey Sowe & Sariba Manneh

The results of the opinion polls by CepRass did not show any candidate winning the mayoral and chairperson elections by landslide, as the majority of the voters are undecided.

CepRass said it does not predict winners in the 2023 Mayoral and Chairmanship elections because the majority of the voters are undecided, making it difficult to predict.

The Center for Policy, Research and Strategic Studies dubbed CepRass, a non-governmental research institution, have conducted opinion polls in the past elections including the 2021 elections and their predictions were right.

The opinion poll revealed that UDP holds a considerable level of support in Banjul, Brikama and Mansakonko, while NPP gained significant support in Kuntaur.

On the intention to vote in Banjul, the survey indicated that more than half of the respondents (52%) are either not decided or prefer to be secretive about their voting intentions.

CepRass disclosed that their opinion poll showed that 26% of the people who responded to the polls indicated that they will vote for Rohey Malick Lowe while NPP’s Ebou Faye got 23%. Also, 61% of the respondents fell under the category “Can’t Tell”

“Of the 48% that have decided or not are open about their decisions, the majority (26%) intend to vote for UDP’s Rohey Malick Lowe, followed by NPP’s Ebou Faye at 23%. On likely to win, a significant 61% of the electorate falls under the “Can’t Tell” category, signalling a substantial level of uncertainty and indecision among the voters,” it added.

The polls revealed that the UDP candidate Rohey Malick Lowe will hold 26% of the votes, making her the front-runner, while NPP’s Ebou Faye, will trail behind with 14% of the votes.

On the intention to vote in Brikama, the survey disclosed that nearly half (48%) of the respondents are either undecided or prefer to keep their intentions secret.

UDP’s candidate, Yankuba Darboe, according to the polls, holds a considerable level of support at 23% while NPP’s candidate, Seedy Sheriff Ceesay, got 22% support.

“With the results for the intention to vote and likely to win contradicting, as well as high proportion of undecided (and secret) voters, we cannot conclude on the likely winner in Brikama,” the survey added.

In Mansakonko, the survey revealed that the UDP’s Landing Sanneh leads on supporters’ intention to vote at 32%, followed by NPP’s Kebba Dem at 28%. However, two-thirds of the respondents (40%) in Mansakonko are either not decided or are secretive about their intention to vote.

“Taking centre stage in the opinion polls race is the United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate, Landing B. Sanneh with 39% support. However, the battle for Mansakonko Area Council is far from one-sided,” the survey revealed.

Meanwhile, the survey stated that the situation remains fluid, with a significant percentage of respondents unable to determine the likely winner. The survey added that the NPP’s candidate follows Landing Sanneh close at 28%.

“However, the large undecided (secret) voters mean that “we” cannot predict the outcome of the election,” CepRass stated.

According to the survey, the likely to win in Kuntaur Administrative Area is Saihou Jawara, the candidate for the National People’s Party (NPP) who got a significant attraction in the opinion polls with 35% of support. Close on Jawara’s heels is the United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate, Alhagie Sillah, who has got 22% of support.

“While the NPP and UDP dominate the polls, it is crucial not to overlook the importance of the “Can’t Tell” category, comprising 42% of respondents”, the survey revealed.

However, the survey stated that these individuals remain undecided or uncertain about their preferred candidate, making their support up for grabs.

“Hence, we can’t predict the outcome in Kuntaur,” CepRass said.

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