By Nelson Manneh
A nationwide opinion poll conducted by Gambia Participates shows that while President Adama Barrow currently leads nationally in public support, a growing internal contest within the United Democratic Party (UDP) may prove decisive in the 2026 presidential elections.
The July 2025 survey indicates Barrow at 31%, Talib Ahmed Bensouda at 18%, Ousainou Darboe at 12%, Mama Kandeh 3%, Essa Mbaye Faal 3%, and other candidates 3%, with 29% undecided. The poll suggests a strong generational contest within UDP, as Bensouda appears to outpace the party’s veteran leader, Darboe, in several constituencies.
In Banjul, for instance, support is fragmented but favors Bensouda (26%) over Darboe (9%), with undecided voters at 32%. In Kerewan, Bensouda leads with 23% compared to Darboe’s 17%, while in Kuntaur he tops the field at 29% against Darboe’s 9%. These regional strengths highlight a potential intra-party challenge if the UDP does not settle on a single candidate.
Marr Nyang, Executive Director of Gambia Participates, stressed that the poll captures perceptions and is not a prediction. “The public opinion polls we are presenting do not suggest that this will be the outcome of the 2026 presidential elections. It only captured people’s opinion and perceptions as of now, the whole dimension may change here against the 2026 elections. The aspiring candidates for the 2026 presidential elections can use this to better prepare themselves,” he said.
Other notable regional patterns include Basse, where Mama Kandeh leads with 35%, Brikama, which shows 25% support for other candidates, and Mansakonko, dominated by Darboe at 35%. The survey underscores that while Barrow currently leads nationally, the significant proportion of undecided voters and internal UDP dynamics will play a critical role in shaping the final results.
