By Kebba AF Touray
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its technical assistance report, has disclosed that over 1 million people have been affected by various types of natural disasters in the Gambia, from 1950-2024 (about 74 years).
The IMF highlighted the disasters which seriously affected the Gambians across various regions.
It gives a breakdown of the disasters as follows: a) Droughts, which had an event count seven with a total affected population of 1,321,100; b) Epidemic outbreaks, with an event count of four, and a total death of 341 people and total affected population of 909; c) Floods, with an event count of eleven and a death toll of 82 and total affected population of 130,670; d) Infestation, with an event count four; e) Storm, with six event counts and nineteen deaths and a total affected population of 48,856; and Wildfires, which has one event count and an affected population of 5,000.
According to the IMF, this gives a total of 33 event counts, 442 total deaths and a total affected population of 1,506,535 people.
Under plausible climate change scenarios, the IMF stated that the Gambia will face increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall over the next 50 years, adding that the first Global Stock-take (UNFCCC 2023) estimated that current policies and commitments will lead to a global mean temperature increase of 2.1-2.8°C by the year 2100, with the full implementation of the latest nationally determined contributions (NDCs).
The IMF report attributed this consistency largely with the SSP2-4.5 scenario, under which The Gambia will experience an average warming of 1.0-1.6°C by the year 2030, and 1.5-2.3°C by the year 2050, relative to 1901-1930 levels.
The report projected that precipitation patterns are more erratic and falling by 11-21 percent by the year 2030 and 10-26 percent by the year 2050, relative to the historical baseline.
“As the country becomes hotter and dryer, the lives and livelihoods of millions of Gambians could be at risk due to the heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture that provides about one-quarter of gross domestic product (GDP) and employs close to half of the population,” IMF reports.
On rising temperature, erratic rainfall, recurring natural hazards and long-term economic development challenges, the IMF report noted that the Gambia is a Least Developed Country with a small economy that is largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture, tourism and remittances, adding that in the year 2022, the GDP of the country was USD 2.19 billion with 53.4 percent of the population living below the national poverty line, adding that with a young and growing population of 2.71 million and more than 250 people per square kilometers, the Gambia faces mounting resource constraints with significant implication for food, water, and energy security.
The report said the Gambian economy is undiversified and highly vulnerable to external shocks.
“The country relies on imports to meet 63 percent of its energy needs and close to 50 percent of its food demand (FAO 2022). Inflation has been persistently higher than 10 percent since 2022, driven by high global food, energy, and fertilizer prices (Nachega et al. 2024),” IMF reports.
However, it recognized that despite these challenges, the Government of The Gambia (GoTG) is proactively incorporating climate change considerations into its development objectives and planning.
“Supported by bilateral and multilateral development partners, the GoTG established a National Climate Change Policy of The Gambia (NCCP, 2016), and a Strategic Program for Climate Resilience (SPCR, 2017),” the IMF reports. It noted that positive initiatives which include a Low Emissions Climate Resilient Development Strategy (LECRDS, 2017); a 2050 Climate Vision (2021); a Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC2), and a Long-Term Climate-Neutral Development Strategy 2050 (LTS), coupled with the formulation of a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) funded by the Green Climate Fund (GCF).
