The peace dividend, after the cold war, did not emerge from military alliances. It came from the integration of the economies of countries that were in different camps during the cold war.
The restriction of military build up in Germany assisted the country to become a major economic power house to the benefit of the German people. Russia’s expansion as a major energy supplier to europe made the country open up to foreign investment. Hence none of the beneficiaries would want the economic linkages to be broken.
The current situation of the war in Ukraine has given rise to actions that are not in line with standards of best practices. The fear that Russia had of Nato’s expansion compelled the Russian planners to send troops to Ukraine. However the fact that Nato did not intervene militarily cautioned Russia to reconsider its war objectives in Ukraine.
Russia’s first objective was to take over the city of Kiyv and overthrow the government and install another government that would not be hostile to Russia. However when Nato failed to intervene Russia had to withdraw from its original plan and focused on making Ukraine ungovernable. This, it has done by supporting secessionist movements in the eastern part of Ukraine. That is how matters stand at the moment.
However countries like Finland and Sweden have decided to join Nato. How Russia will react will determine whether Europe will forge closer ties or be marked by division and confrontation. The two countries have not eased the tension in Ukraine by declaring at this juncture that they intend to join Nato. Russia may move to a long term prolongation of the war.
There is need to reconsider the current security architecture in a more profound way rather than increase world tension by taking the wrong decision at the wrong time.
