By: Kebba AF Touray
The President of the ECOWAS Commission, Dr. Omar Alieu Touray, has reported to the ECOWAS Parliament that if appropriate measures are not taken, 49.5 million people could be affected by food crises by the lean season in June-August 2024.
President Touray made this revelation while presenting the 2024 Interim Report, including Food and Nutritional Resilience and Security and the general state of the Community, on Thursday, 11 July 2024, at the ECOWAS Parliament.
He explained that the Réseau de Prévention de Crises Alimentaires (Food Crisis Prevention Network – RPCA), at its meeting held from 3rd to 5th April 2024, presented a cereal production forecast for 2023- 2024 of approximately 77 million tons.
He said this represents a fall of 0.6% from the previous year, but an increase of 4% compared with the average for the last five years.
He said that production of roots and tubers, valued at 206 million tons, is up by 4% compared to last year and by 8% against the five-year average.
“Despite these results, the food and nutrition situation in the region remains a source of concern. If appropriate measures are not taken, 49.5 million people could be affected by the crisis by the lean season in June-August 2024,” said Dr. Touray.
He added, “This includes 31.7 million in Nigeria, 3.4 million in Niger, 3.3 million in Chad, 2.7 million in Burkina Faso, 1.6 million in Sierra Leone, 1.4 million in Mali, and around 1 million in Ghana.”
According to Dr. Touray, the number of malnourished children continues to rise in the region, with around 16.7 million children under the age of five affected by acute malnutrition.
This food situation, he said, is worsened by civil insecurity, leading to large-scale population movements of at least 6.9 million internally displaced people, deprived of their essential resources such as housing, means of production, and social capital.
“In response to the worsening food and nutrition situation in the region, ECOWAS is preparing to extend its solidarity to the most affected Member States by donating over 5,000 tons of grains (maize, sorghum, millet, and rice) and enriched flour,” he said.
Furthermore, he said it is strengthening the intervention capacities of the Regional Food Security Reserve (RRSA) with 28,000 tons of grains produced in the region currently being received to increase the physical stock level of the Regional Food Security Reserve to close to 64,000 tons.
On inflation, he said that having reached 20.8% in 2023, average annual inflation within ECOWAS is projected to fall to 19.3% in 2024 before further dropping to 15.1% in 2025.
He reported that the easing of inflationary pressures within the Community would be due to the anticipated fall in imported inflation, the impact of the tightening of monetary policies, and the reduction in national currency depreciation in certain countries.
“However, the persistent regional trade barriers (illegal levies, taxes, and bans on the export of grains by certain countries), as well as the rising cost of transport, are all factors that would drive up prices in the region,” he told the regional legislature.
On the ECOWAS Growth Rate, he reported that based on data provided by Member States, economic activity within ECOWAS would pick up in 2024, with an average real GDP growth rate of 4.3% compared to 3.6% the previous year, before rising to 4.4% in 2025.
He expressed: “This development would reflect the positive economic performance recorded in most Member States in 2024”.
In terms of consumer price inflation, Dr Touray reported that annual average inflation is expected to reach 16.5 percent, compared to 16.0 percent in 2023 and 12.6% in 2022, reflecting the surge in inflation in North Africa (19.1% in 2024 compared to 15.6% in 2023), which is in sharp contrast to the easing in Sub-Saharan Africa (15.3% in 2024 compared to 16.2% in 2023).
The persistently high level of inflation in Africa, he cited could be attributed to imported inflation, whose impact is worsened by the depreciation of currencies in most countries and the inadequate supply of local consumer goods in markets.
In the external sector, “the current account deficit would continue to widen and account for 2.8% of GDP in 2024, compared to 1.8% of GDP the previous year. This situation is believed to be the result of worsening deficits in all regions except Central and West Africa,” he told ECOWAS Parliament.
On public finances and public debt, he said the average budget deficit would amount to 4.4% of GDP in 2024 and 3.9% of GDP in 2025, down from 5.1% of GDP in 2023.
“This development would reflect the budgetary consolidation efforts in the Community, with increased revenue and controlled public spending, resulting in reduced budget deficits in all Member States in 2024,” he said.
