By Kebba AF Touray
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its technical assistance report on the Gambia, indicated that an estimated 200,000 to 300,000 meters of sediment, is lost annually through coastal erosion between Banjul point and Sanyang.
“Recent estimates show that 200,000 to 300,000 metric cubes of sediment is lost annually through coastal erosion between Banjul and Sanyang Points (RMSI and MECCNAR 2019),” IMF said. The Fund reported that the rate of land loss is estimated to be between 2.5 to 3ha per year, and that total land loss could reach 7.65km square along the coastal stretches of selected regions including Banjul, Kanifing, Brikama and Kerewan.
The IMF added that conservative estimates shows that the cost of SLR-induced storms could reach USD 2 billion by 2090 without adaptation, and that the cost of coastal erosion would be much higher.
“The Gambia is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. A small country located on the eastern seaboard of the Atlantic Ocean, The Gambia forms a narrow enclave into the Republic of Senegal with around 80km of coastline and 200km of sheltered shoreline,” the IMF report said.
As highlighted by the IMF, The Gambia has a unique topography characterized by its namesake river that runs east to west through the entire country; that with an average elevation of only 34 meters above sea level, the country’s landscape is predominantly a flat flood plain with mangroves near the coastline and savanna, further inland.
The report said building climate resilience in the coastal area is a national development priority and a long term adaptation challenge for The Gambia, and said the Gambia’s coastline of 80km is home to most of its population and it is also at the center of its social, economic, and political life.
It continued that under 0.2 meters of future SLR, the Tanbi Wetland National Park (TWNP) covering an area of around 6,300 hectares (ha) and “connecting the three main urban population centers within the Greater Banjul Area including Banjul City, Kanifing Municipality and Brikama, will be submerged.”
The Tanbi Wetland park according to the IMF consists mostly of mangroves that act as hydrological buffer zones (Ramsar Convention 2007) and serve as important nursery grounds for fish species (Ceesay et al. 2016).
Under greater SLR of 1.0 meter, the IMF asserted that corresponding to the anticipated SLR under current policies by 2050-2100, critical coastal infrastructure and ecosystems will be at risk, including 6,500ha of wood land and 40,900ha of mangroves within the North Bank, West Coast and Central River regions (RMSI and MECCNAR 2019).
As most of the country lies below 20m, sea level rise (SLR) poses substantial risks and showed that the Gambia has one of the lowest elevations in the world and that its unique geography makes it susceptible to coastal erosion, flooding, and saltwater intrusion.
“The capital city Banjul, and the Greater Banjul area which is home to around 1.4 million residents or more than 60 percent of the country’s population, is located at sea level,” the IMF report said.
Global mean sea level as revealed by the IMF rose by 0.2 meters between 1901 and 2018 and said the pace of the increase is accelerating (IPCC 2023); that even under a moderate warming scenario with current policies (RCP 4.5), average sea level is projected to rise between 0.12 to 0.41 meters by 2050 and from 0.24 to 1.07 meters by the year 2100, relative to the year 2000 levels in The Gambia. The IMF further stated that beyond the inundation of natural and built areas along the coast, sea level rise will exacerbate the salinization of freshwater aquifers and accelerate coastal erosion.
The IMF report explained that Gambia has a tropical savannah climate characterized by a short rainy season between June and September and a longer dry season between October and May.
“Annual average temperature ranges from 26°C near the western coastline to 30°C in the eastern inland regions. Since the 1960s, annual average temperature has risen by around 1.0°C relative to 1901 and 1930 levels, while average precipitation has declined by more than 100mm per year, together exacerbating existing frequent droughts,” the IMF report said.
For the information of the readership, the IMF provides technical assistance to member countries in a wide range of areas, such as public financial management, tax policy and administration, banking supervision, monetary and exchange rate policy, official statistics and legal issues, and its staff prepare technical assistance reports for member countries at their own request.
